It’s That Time Again

Posted on 30 May 2012 by JLusk

 

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2012

 

We anticipate that the 2012 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have reduced activity compared with the 1981-2010 climatology. The tropical Atlantic has anomalously cooled over the past several months, and it appears that the chances of an El NiƱo event this summer and fall are relatively high. We anticipate a below-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the United States coastline and in the Caribbean. However, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them, and they need to prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.

 

(as of 4 April 2012)

 

By Philip J. Klotzbach1 and William M. Gray2

 

 

 

 

ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2012

 

Forecast Parameter and 1981-2010

Median (in parentheses)

Issue Date

4 April 2012

Named Storms (NS) (12.0)

10

Named Storm Days (NSD) (60.1)

40

Hurricanes (H) (6.5)

4

Hurricane Days (HD) (21.3)

16

Major Hurricanes (MH) (2.0)

2

Major Hurricane Days (MHD) (3.9)

3

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) (92)

70

Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (NTC) (103%)

75

 

 

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